1. Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Agriculture’s contribution to climate change is expected to grow rapidly as other sectors decarbonize, the global population grows, and industrial animal production becomes more pervasive.

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achieve the Paris Agreement goal of limiting warming to no more than 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, let alone the safer target of 1.5 degrees Celsius. And if meat consumption continues to grow, climate change will be dramatically accelerated.

The Global Calculator, developed by research institutions across several countries, shows that even with the most aggressive mitigation in energy production and use, transportation, industry, and housing, the world will greatly exceed the two-degree Celsius target—if we do not reduce food system emissions.⁹ Global food systems contribute about one quarter to onethird of total greenhouse gas emissions,¹⁰ and numerous extensive scientific studies confirm that shifts in agricultural practices are critical for achieving international climate targets.¹¹ The vast majority of agricultural emissions now derive from animal agriculture, so significantly changing how animal products are produced and consumed will be critical. Stopping the conversion of native grasslands or forests to croplands is another important factor. The model sees a particularly big impact in reducing long-term greenhouse gas emissions through multi-cropping and agroforestry, where trees and shrubs are integrated on land with crops and/or livestock production. Other

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countries are already investing significant sums into agroforestry research and production, yet the United States has lagged, despite robust research demonstrating its significant potential to sequester carbon while producing ample food. Moreover, food production needs will increase as the global population continues to grow. Thus, perhaps even more than agriculture’s current contribution, its long-term determinative factor in climate stability demands careful policy attention.