The Future World Is VUCA[71] [72]
Today top managers and their organizations act in environments in which information ceases to have any prognostic significance. The consequences are volatility, uncertainty, complexity and ambiguity: VUCA.
In the end, it is all about two parameters: How much information about a particular situation is available, and to what extent can I estimate the consequences of my actions? In principle, this means giving volatile frameworks sufficient fluctuation buffers and giving uncertain situations a solid amount of information. Complex developments are counteracted by a combination of information and resources. Back in the beginning of the nineteenth century, even Clausewitz urged the military leader to explain complex situations in a simple way, but not to think in an easy way.People who think about the future, such as philosophical essayist Nassim Taleb and his interpretation of epistemology, no longer apply the logic of value chain. Today, the evolutionary power of organizations supersedes process creation. Nassim Taleb is trying to figure out how the robust tayloristic system can lead to development of versatile, adaptable and thus resilient organizations. Taylor's attempt to control the dynamic of systems by creating a self-similar structure depicting the economic reality, is opposed by Taleb's model of evolutionary development. Taylor's idea copies seemingly essential points of economic reality, thus creating a self-similar copy of what we consider necessary. In contrast, Taleb attempts to establish an idea for the reorganization of rules, norms and principles which establish a framework, but do not claim to dominate all contingencies. The shape of a treetop is not necessarily as important as its environment which allows the tree to grow and bear fruit.
Once, a Bavarian forest farmer said to me: “Only change what you are able to change.”[73]
The difference between Taylorism and the thinking of Nassim Taleb can be explained by means of a stone—its structure reminds us of rocks or even mountains.
The benefit of such simplification is apparent. Complicated structures become transparent and manageable. There is a danger to succumb to misconceptions, if the management of such simplification is taken for granted. Due to self-similarity, attributes of mountains such as danger of avalanches, are eliminated. Such a fractal invites misconception and ignorance of seemingly irrelevant information. The stone displays a deceptive similarity to reality, however without the identity of the mountain. The increasing dynamic of markets unmasks Taylor's fractal.Organizations exposed to the complexities and dynamics of megatrends, like humans who are exposed to forces of nature, can permanently resist development pressure, once they are able to develop self-similar systems from within. In Taleb's view, there is an evolutionary correlation, making biology and economics face similar challenges: both disciplines try to explain survival and innovation in an unpredictable world. The evolution resolves this by constant self-reflection about the available resources and the possibilities of the environment. Next to that, the system develops alternatives for the most different scenarios. For enterprises this means owning an idea, rather than the solution for the recombination of products and processes. A new culture of feedback and dialogue is the precondition for that.
Nassim Taleb appeals to organizations, asking them to rethink their visions and strategies. He calls on the companies to also think about the unthinkable and to develop skills and tools which allow to think in a frame of diversity. The aim is to be prepared for the unforeseeable. He calls this antifragility.[74] It is not about all-encompassing solution mechanics, but rather about the idea of facing the environment in a reflexive manner. The forest farmer, quoted before, plants different kinds of fruit trees around his forest, knowing that parasites prefer special kinds of wood. Longer distances between individual trees increase the probability of birds catching the insects.
In his view, fewer parasites mean a greater number of healthy trees, making the entire forest more resistant to changing adverse weather conditions. The amount of birds in the orchard are indicators for how well his system functions. In addition, he casually mentions the fruit's suitability to make Schnapps and jam as an attractive sideline of business for the family. In a sequentially operating system, the symptoms of pest infestation would have been combated with chemical pesticides. Initially, this would have worked, but would also have caused a negative effect on the entire ecosystem. Poisoned insects means fewer birds, fewer birds means less seeds in the forest, less seeds in the forest means less growth etc.If the actions of a forest farmer secure survival in difficult situations, how can an organization benefit from this thought process? In relation to our economic behavior this would mean a transformation of tayloristic and fordistic social models into Taleb's world[75] to allow for the development of innovation-driven organizations, organizations that are at ease with technical issues of flawless performance. The majority of organizations are well organized for creating optimal conditions for production of goods and the provision of services. The lever for change lies within employees' behavior and can be shaped by the design of modern employment. Due to a lack of experience with a VUCA work environment, one can only speculate about the changed expectations with regard to employment and its future; it certainly won't be as linear as labor research has predicted in the 1990s of last century.[76]
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